National Preparedness And Mangement Of Covid-19: The Nigerian Experience.
Nigeria’s COVID-19 index case was diagnosed on 27th February 2019. The patient was an Italian citizen working in Nigeria who returned to Lagos from Milan at the end of February and became ill a day later. The patient was transferred to the Lagos State biosecurity facilities for isolation and testing. Another suspected case was identified on 9th March and was a Nigerian citizen who had recent contact with the Italian index case. The Nigerian centre for disease control (NCDC) reported that the second case tested negative in an announcement on 13th March
Nigeria 3rd suspected case was confirmed in Lagos State on 17th March. The patient was a 30-year-old Nigerian woman who recently returned from the United Kingdom. The number of infections has gradually increased since then and as of 27th May 389 new confirmed cases of COVID-19 were recorded in the country, bringing the total to 8,733 confirmed cases. 2,501 patients have since been discharged and 254 deaths have been recorded. We believe the increase in confirmed cases reflect increased rates of testing which would indicate an increase in community transmission. We take heart that the death rate has so far been relatively low and that many confirmed cases have since recovered. There is speculation that the relatively low mortality rates in African countries compared to Western countries may be attributed to the positive effect of hot weather, relative high humidity, acquired immunity to related viruses such as heme binding parasites like malaria. Such beliefs remain mere speculation that will need further scientific study to provide support. As we move towards the end of June, epidemiologists are predicting more community transmissions and an eventual peak of infections and a subsequent decline. The NCDC has responded to these predictions and believes that recovery is chiefly down to good oxygen supplies. Many Nigerians believe that there are other treatments involved which may explain a lower mortality rate. If this is the case these treatments remain undisclosed by the NCDC. One speculated treatment involves anti-malaria drugs. Ogun state Governor Seyi Makinde who recovered from the infection recommended local fruits especially carrots and black seed for treatment, in sharp contrast his Bauchi state counterpart Bala Mohammed who also recovered from the virus has publicly said that anti-malaria drugs, antibiotics and Zinc were used to manage his battle with the disease.
Delayed lockdown
The Federal government did not enforce a lockdown of our international airports and major cities including Lagos and Abuja until 29th March when the President announced his intention to lockdown the nation. Many Nigerians believe that this delay was to allow the families of the elite and ruling class in the diaspora to comeback. This speculation is reflected in the number of high-profile cases spanning from the late Mallam Abba Kyari the powerful and influential Presidents’ Chief of staff, to state governors and key former and present government functionaries. Delays in implementing lockdown at airports and interstate roads are thought to be responsible for much of Nigeria’s current COVID-19 situation. Despite a Presidential directive for closure of interstate roads, many state governors have publicly condemned the activities of some security agents that have allowed commuters access to these roads. Poor enforcement of government directives has fuelled concerns of potentially significant population movements from northern states to southern states which would have significant security implications when considering the large ethno-religious tension throughout the country’s history.
Government Intervention
On 1st April, the Humanitarian Affairs Ministry headed by Sadiya Umar Farouq began paying 20,000 Naira (£41), to families registered on the National Social Register of Poor and Vulnerable Households. This register was set up by the Buhari administration in 2016 to combat poverty. The President directed that each family on the register will receive monthly cash payments for four months. These cash handouts are most likely going to reach only a small number of Nigerians who will need economic assistance. Human Rights Watch reported that Minister Farouq stated on 31st March that the National Social Register included 11 million people from 2.6 million households, far fewer than the over 90 million Nigerians estimated to live in extreme poverty (less than $1.90 a day). President Buhari announced on 13th April that the National Social Register would be expanded from 2.6 million households to 3.6 million in the next two weeks. This also falls far short of reaching less than 10% of vulnerable people in Nigeria. One can only imagine the social consequences of restraining severely impoverished people from income generating activities over 28 days to contain the disease. Most analysts are advocating for a total package of food and relief to the poor and vulnerable to ensure successful COVID-19 containment. With the recent relaxation of the lockdown there seem to be some respite for the growing population of desperate people who live on less than a dollar a day and who have no savings. The saying of from hand to mouth encapsulates the reality of the most vulnerable sections of Nigerian society who rely on daily income generating activities to be able to afford food and other essentials.
Human Rights Watch said the government’s failure to disclose key details of the cash transfer program casts doubt on how many people will be included and who will eventually benefit. On 4th April the Social and Economic Rights Accountability Project (SERAP), a nongovernmental organization, filed a freedom of information request seeking details on the government’s relief funds. SERAP wrote that they were “seriously concerned that millions of the country’s poorest and most vulnerable people have not benefited from the announced palliatives, donations, reported cash payments, cash transfers and other initiatives.” Under Nigeria’s freedom of information law, the government must provide the information within seven days. We hope the request is answered to enable the most vulnerable of the country’s society to benefit from the relief funds.
Private Nigerian’s donations
Aliko Dangote, Femi Otedola and Tony Elumelu are among many prominent Nigerians that have donated over two million pounds (£2m) towards the fight against the pandemic. Several companies have also made contributions to the fight, specifically targeting food security.
Foreign donations
Nigeria is to benefit from a European Union donation of $55m to boost the country’s fight against coronavirus, targeting food security. Chinese companies working in Nigeria donated $1.3m worth of medical kit and equipment and the Japanese government donated $18.2m for medical supplies. Jack Ma the head of Alibaba also donated huge medical supplies to Nigeria.
Lagos State
Lagos state Governor Babajide Sanwolu, has shown good leadership in the fight against the pandemic, despite having the highest number of confirmed cases (57%). In their support, the Federal Governmenthas released a 10 billionNaira (£24m) grant to Lagos Stateto increase its capacity to respond to the outbreak. Despite the rising cases in Nigeria, large segments of a population of about 200 million remain very sceptical about the pandemic and do not adhere to the lockdown protocols. Many people believe the pandemic is all politics and games by the Federal Government to obtain aid from the World Health Organisation (WHO) and other foreign donors. Some call it COVID-419 a reference to a well-known fraudulent scheme. Rising ambivalence is cause for concern. The Health ministry and NCDC are working very hard using social media and other media outlets to enlighten people on the reality and preventive measures of the pandemic.
… Robbers taking advantage of the lockdown
In the nation commercial centre Lagos and other towns in the country, there have been reports of robbers exploiting the lockdown. They have looted shops and robbed households. Re-curing incidents have pushed residents into forming neighbourhood vigilante groups. Lagos state residents have raised concerns about the ability of the Police to tackle rising crime rates in the state. Recent reports show that joint Police, military, and secret service teams have arrested many of these hoodlums and everything is reportedly gradually returning to normal. Incidents of looting and break down of law and order reflect increasing tendency towards criminality in the wake of weak community security system, growing hunger, desperation and hopelessness from the lockdown and subsequent poor management of relief packages. Whilst there is no excuse for criminality the government should take care of the vulnerable to stop people from resorting to self help.
Nigerians respond to the arrival of Chinese experts
A team of Chinese medical experts arrived Nigeria for a month-long visit to help the country’s fight against COVID-19. The invitation of Chinese experts was strongly opposed by opposition political parties, religious groups, civil society organizations (CSO), and health professionals including local doctors. The Nigerian Medical Association (NMA) called the arrival of these Chinese experts “ill-timed” and raised concerns over the impact of a similar team that had visited Italy. This has become a contentious issue according to some CSOs when considering the hazard allowance component for health workers salary in Nigeria is about (£15) monthly which is factored into their normal pay[TE1] . The government has since increased this amount and has made insurance policies available for these great men and women fighting to save lives and keep us safe even at huge risk to their personal lives. Almost a month after the Chinese doctors completed their compulsory 14 days quarantine in Nigeria, there has been no updates on their exact location or their activities.
The Positives
Nigeria’s Central bank (CBN) recently announced a credit relief of $136.6M to businesses affected by the pandemic. The CBN Governor Godwin Emefiele said households, small and medium-sized enterprises, airlines, hotels, and healthcare merchants will benefit from the relief. The CBN has released guidelines that must be followed by individuals and companies to access the N50billion (£100m) targeted credit facility for households and Small and Medium Enterprises that are badly hit by the pandemic. The CBN has also introduced a CBN backed N100b (£200m) for health sector intervention schemes available until 2030. In a related development the state owned oil company the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation has announced the construction of 6 specialist Hospitals across the nation, concurrently, the major research funding agency TET Fund has disclosed the immediate establishment of 12 centre of research excellence in Nigeria, all in the bid to fight the pandemic and potentially build local capacity for future health emergencies. If these are successfully implemented, one may deduce that the current pandemic must have become a re-awakening for investment into the health sector which has received less than 5% of the total national budget in past years.
The National Economy
As the pandemic continues to destroy human lives and livelihoods, financial and economic sectors of Nigeria are not spared. This can be seen in the crash of oil prices in recent times. This crash is going to affect the national budget if oil prices plummets drastically below the $35 per barrel benchmark. If this pandemic is not stopped and oil price continues to nosedive, Nigeria risks another recession with its negative consequences on an estimated economically vulnerable population of over 90m. One can only imagine how long this dance with death will last but we must remain hopeful and optimistic that mankind will come out of this stronger and better.
Ikpegbu Ekele PhD
Public Affairs Analyst
The Views in this post are solely those of the author of this content and do not represent the views of Whitfield Echlin & Company LLP or any of their partners.